#Spread of #Zika virus in the #Americas (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, abstract)

(Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.)

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Qian Zhang a, Kaiyuan Sun a, Matteo Chinazzi a, Ana Pastore y Piontti a, Natalie E. Dean b, Diana Patricia Rojas c, Stefano Merler d, Dina Mistry a, Piero Poletti e, Luca Rossif , Margaret Bray a, M. Elizabeth Halloran g,h, Ira M. Longin i, Jr.b, and Alessandro Vespignani a,f,1

Author Affiliations: a Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115; b Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; c Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; d Bruno Kessler Foundation, 38123 Trento, Italy; e Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Universitá Commerciale L. Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; f Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy; g Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109;h Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

Edited by Alan Hastings, University of California, Davis, CA, and approved March 30, 2017 (received for review December 8, 2016)

Significance

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches can be essential in providing quantitative scenarios of disease spreading, as well as projecting the impact in the population. Here we analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic in the Americas with a microsimulation approach informed by high-definition demographic, mobility, and epidemic data. The model provides probability distributions for the time and place of introduction of Zika in Brazil, the estimate of the attack rate, timing of the epidemic in the affected countries, and the projected number of newborns from women infected by Zika. These results are potentially relevant in the preparation and analysis of contingency plans aimed at Zika virus control.

Abstract

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

Zika virus – computational epidemiology – metapopulation – network model – vector-borne diseases

Footnotes

1 To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: [email protected].

Author contributions: M.E.H., I.M.L., and A.V. designed research; Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., S.M., D.M., P.P., L.R., and A.V. performed research; Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., D.M., M.B., and A.V. analyzed data; and Q.Z., K.S., M.C., A.P.y.P., N.E.D., D.P.R., S.M., D.M., P.P., L.R., M.B., M.E.H., I.M.L., and A.V. wrote the paper.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

This article contains supporting information online at http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1620161114/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Keywords: Zika Virus; American Region.

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