Housing Early Warning Stress Indicator On Rise

A chart in the latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Release caught my eye.

For five months, the number of properties and the percentage of properties 30-days delinquent has been on the rise (arrows added).

click on chart for sharper image

Key Indicators

• The mortgage delinquency rate jumped nearly 5% in August, reaching its highest point since February.
• The year-over-year change in 30-day delinquencies is a negative 4.8%. Another month like August would nearly reverse the year-over-year downtrend in delinquencies.
• The inventory of 30-day delinquent homes rose by 146,000. Another month like August would reverse the year-over-year change.
• 90-day delinquencies do not show the same ominous trend as 3-day delinquencies, but 90-day delinquencies first require 30-day delinquency then 60-day delinquency.

So far, the 90-day stats have not rolled over, but with the 30-day uptrend this long, it likely will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.